11/14/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When the clock struck midnight on Friday morning, Major League Baseball teams were officially able to start talking financial numbers with free agents from other teams.
With that, the craziness that is the MLB Hot Stove officially began.
And this offseason figures to be particularly nuts, given the presence of big name free agents like Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia. Not to mention that Jake Peavy is more than likely going to be traded.
Plus the New York Yankees have a lot of money to spend, which is music to the ears of the Players Association.
We've already had a couple of trades this past week with Matt Holliday heading to Oakland and Nick Swisher on his way to the New York Yankees. I don't get either deal. Oakland is never going to re-sign Holliday, and if the Yankees want a .240 hitter who plays first base, why not re-sign Jason Giambi?
The Swisher news had to bum out Scott Boras and Mark Teixeira. Even if they had no intention of signing with the Yanks, you always want them at least in the mix. Who knows? With the amount of cash the Yanks have to throw around this winter, they probably are still in on Teixeira.
So with that said, let's take a look at some of the other top free agents and where they might wind up:
STARTING PITCHERS
CC SABATHIA - You know the deal with him. Stud of studs. Big left-hander, who will take the ball on three days' rest and give you a complete game. Rumor is he wants to pitch on the west coast and would prefer to stay in the National League because he likes to swing the bat. The New York Yankees are going to blow him out of the water with an offer that will probably be $20-30 million more than any other team will offer. I'd be shocked if he is not opening the new Yankee Stadium in April. Be careful, though, he has thrown close to 500 innings over the last two seasons.
A.J. BURNETT - Picked a perfect year to stay healthy. The Yankees could use another starter and if they don't get Sabathia he will be at the top of their list. He comes with some injury concerns, though. When healthy, he is one of the better righties in the league. Baltimore could also be an option.
DEREK LOWE - Good option, not a great option. Best word to describe him is solid. Plus he seems to pitch better as the games get more important which, of course, is why he is so highly coveted. But I am not sure he is worth the $15 or $16 million a season he is going to command.
BEN SHEETS - Buyer beware with him. One of these years, though, Sheets is going to stay healthy and win a Cy Young Award. It wouldn't shock me to see him re-up with the Brewers.
KEEP AN EYE ON: Oliver Perez, Andy Pettitte, John Smoltz, Randy Johnson
RELEIVERS
FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - No way is he going to get the five-year, $75 million deal he and his people are seeking. When it is all said and done I think he signs a four-year, $52 million contract. Contrary to popular belief, I don't think the New York Mets get in on him. My best guess is he signs with Milwaukee.
BRIAN FUENTES - Going to be a nice consolation price for whichever team does not land Rodriguez. With Billy Wagner sidelined for the entire 2009 campaign, the Mets are going to get a closer, and he will probably be the guy.
TREVOR HOFFMAN - Anyone have room for the all-time saves leader? Apparently the San Diego Padres don't. Something tells me he winds up in St. Louis. Detroit could also be in the mix, but I don't see him switching leagues, especially with all the closer jobs available in the NL at the moment.
KERRY WOOD - I am a little surprised that the Cubs are going to let him walk. It will be weird to watch him in another uniform. Don't be surprised if he winds up in San Diego as Hoffman's successor.
OUTFIELDERS
MANNY RAMIREZ - There is no question Ramirez is worth every penny he is going to get. The question is, do you want to go more than two or three years? Boras supposedly wants a six-year deal. That won't happen. I would be shocked if the Dodgers let him get away. In the end they will cave and give him three years guaranteed at roughly $25-27 million with an option for a fourth year. I don't think he would be able to do much better than that.
ADAM DUNN - He strikes out a lot, but is a run-producing machine. Surprisingly the Washington Nationals are interested, but they have a logjam in the outfield following this week's trade with the Florida Marlins. He could find a home with the Angels if Teixeira decides to leave.
BOBBY ABREU - He has Chicago Cubs written all over him, plus they will give him three years and close to $50 million. He won't love the wall at Wrigley, but you know what you are getting at the plate with him. Abreu will hit close to .300 with 25-30 home runs and will drive in 100 RBI. Plus he is always on base.
RAUL IBANEZ - Could be the steal of this free agent class. The Mets, Phillies and Braves will all be in on him, as will the Tampa Bay Rays. He won't command crazy money either.
PAT BURRELL - Not as solid of an option as Ibanez, but the same teams will be interested. He likely winds up in the AL, probably in Tampa if they don't get Ibanez.
KEEP AN EYE ON: Milton Bradley
INFIELDERS
MARK TEIXEIRA If Manny is the best hitter on the market, then Teixeira is the second-best. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim want him back bad. But with Boras you know Tex is going to get as much as he can. Also watch for Baltimore to get involved here, as Teixeira is from there.
ORLANDO HUDSON - Hudson is starting to become a hot commodity. The Mets supposedly love him, but they have to unload Luis Castillo's contract first. Good luck with that. St. Louis could also be a fit
CASEY BLAKE - One of those gritty intangible guys. Joe Torre supposedly loved him with the Dodgers, so he could stay out there. But if the Dodgers decide to move Russell Martin to third, there is no use for Blake. Minnesota will be looking for a third baseman and is very familiar with him. He might not win you a championship, but championship teams always have a guy like Blake on their squad. Does that make any sense?
KEEP AN EYE ON: Jason Giambi, Rafael Furcal, Orlando Cabrera
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers SPORTS TRASH TALK
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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