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07/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - We are just past the halfway point of the Major League Baseball season and the Detroit Tigers are right where they want to be; atop the American League Central standings.
The Tigers have gotten off to a hot start in July, having won five of six this month following their three-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles this week. Most importantly, they've been getting contributions from top to bottom.
Wednesday night against Baltimore, Tigers' starter Max Scherzer pitched seven innings of one-run ball, scattering six hits while striking out six. It was his fourth consecutive victory, marking a career-high. Indeed, Scherzer has enjoyed a sweet redemption in the Motor City. Back in mid-May, Scherzer was demoted to Triple-A Toledo with a 1-4 record and a 7.29 ERA.
He had even dubbed himself a "Five and Dive guy" for his frequent high pitch counts and subsequent inability to get past the fifth inning. But that is no more as Scherzer is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA since his return, averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings.
Another guy who has been a major sparkplug to the team's recent surge is veteran Johnny Damon, who is hitting .304 in July and reached a milestone with his 2,500th career hit in the third inning of Wednesday's game. However, it was career hit No. 2,501 which will have a more lasting memory. Damon propelled the Tigers to a 7-5 win over the Orioles with a walk-off homer in the 11th inning.
"The 2,500 ball is going to go in my trophy case," he said after the game. "But 2,501 is definitely going to be the one I remember that helped this team win a crucial ballgame."
An even bigger catalyst has been Miguel Cabrera, who has his sights set on a Triple Crown. Entering Wednesday's game, Cabrera was leading the majors in batting average (.347), homers (21) and RBI (73). But later that night, Toronto's Jose Bautista surpassed him with his 22nd homer of the year, albeit an inside-the-parker. Cabrera has also hit safely in 16 straight games, which is one shy of his career high, set last season.
Next up for the Tigers is a weekend home series with the Minnesota Twins leading into the All-Star break. Minnesota was recently leapfrogged in the division standings by the Chicago White Sox, winners of five straight.
The Tigers have been able to take care of struggling teams. Wednesday's sweep of the Orioles wrapped up Detroit's streak of six straight home series against last-place teams. The Tigers compiled a 15-3 mark during that stretch.
ROYALS CLOSING FIRST HALF WITH A BANG
The Kansas City Royals (39-46) are sending a message that they intend to hang around in the AL Central race. They've won three straight and five of six so far in the month of July. Overall, they've won 10 of their last 13.
The only problem is, they haven't been able to gain any ground. The first- place Tigers (46-37) have won three straight and seven of 10, while the second-place White Sox (46-38) have won five in a row. As a result, the Royals' deficit in the division standings is still eight games, but they'll have a chance to close some ground this weekend as they head to Chicago for a three-game set with their division rival.
Usually by this time, most sports fans in Kansas City have shifted their attention away from the Royals and toward the start of Chiefs training camp. Earlier this week, the Royals swept the Mariners in Seattle for the first time in 15 years. But how does this hot streak affect the team's eye toward the future? Will manager Ned Yost continue to play veterans at the expense of younger guys who need the at-bats?
"Realistically, if you can get it down to somewhere between four and six games with two months to play, you've got a chance," general manager Dayton Moore told the Kansas City Star.
The real question is, if the Royals manage to achieve that type of deficit by the end of the month, will Moore suddenly become a buyer at the trade deadline and part with some coveted prospects for help now?
WHITE SOX SUFFER MAJOR BLOW
When White Sox starter Jake Peavy abruptly walked off the mound after feeling a strange sensation in the back of his pitching shoulder during the second inning of Tuesday night's game with the Angels, fans throughout Chicago's South Side collectively held their breath.
As it turns out, the injury suffered by Peavy appears to be quite serious, and likely, season ending. That will ultimately hinge on a second and third opinion for what has been diagnosed as a detached latissimus dorsi muscle. Obviously, that's a major blow for a team has won five in a row to move to within a half-game of first place in the AL Central.
Over his last six starts, Peavy had compiled a 1.67 ERA and was pitching like the ace he was brought to Chicago to be. Most surprisingly, he was dominating on the mound despite some arm budding arm problems. After complaining of a dead arm a few weeks ago, Peavy underwent an MRI, which revealed fluid build- up in his pitching elbow. Although his next start was pushed back a couple of days, Peavy did not go on the DL, a decision that was reached after extensive internal discussions. In his previous start leading up to Tuesday, he felt something grab in the back of his shoulder, which yielded some bruising in the area. Still, after receiving some treatment, Peavy pitched on.
"I don't think anyone is at fault here -- myself for wanting to be out there or the team for letting me be out there," Peavy said.
No word from general manager Kenny Williams on how the injury will alter his trade deadline plans. For now, Daniel Hudson figures to be called up from Triple-A Charlotte to replace Peavy in the rotation, although nothing has been decided. Hudson was pulled out of the Futures Game on Sunday, leading to speculation that he'd be the man to fill Peavy's shoes, for now.
TWINS TRYING TO STOP THE BLEEDING
Less than a week ago, the Minnesota Twins were a fist-place team in the American League Central. But as we've learned over the years, things can change very quickly in this division. Entering this weekend's final series before the All-Star break, the Twins (45-40) find themselves in third place, two games back of Detroit.
However, by the end of the weekend, it's possible they could be right back in the driver's seat. The Twins head to the Motor City to kick off a three-game set with the division-leading Tigers Friday. And Minnesota is hell-bent on heading into the break the same way they've spent much of the season's first half; atop the division.
The series opener presents a marquee pitching matchup between Minnesota's Francisco Liriano and Detroit's Justin Verlander. In his last outing, Liriano went seven innings and allowed one run on four hits, fanning 10 against the Rays last Saturday. He'll need to bring his A-game Friday for a Minnesota squad that is a bit banged up at the moment.
First baseman Justin Morneau was held out of Thursday's lineup after taking a knee to the head on Wednesday night. Also on Wednesday night, left fielder Delmon Young sprained his left wrist during an outfield collision with Denard Span, though Young was back in the lineup Thursday.
CARMONA ENJOYING REBOUND SEASON FOR TRIBE
When he burst onto the scene with a 19-8 record and a 3.06 ERA as a 24-year- old in 2007, Indians starter Fausto Carmona was dubbed the next big thing in Cleveland. But injuries derailed his 2008 season, and last year he pitched so poorly he was demoted to the rookie-level Arizona League to try and regain his form.
Consider the first half of this season as evidence that Carmona has, in fact, rediscovered his mojo. Through 17 starts this year, he has compiled a 3.69 ERA and has tossed two complete games. Next week in Anaheim, he will be Cleveland's lone representative in the 2010 All-Star game, which will be his first as a pro.
Carmona was a manager's selection by New York Yankees coach Joe Girardi, who will manage the American League All-Stars. However, Carmona was mild-mannered about the news, which was delivered on a day when he lost to the A's, 3-1 despite another quality start.
"He's 7-7 now," pitching coach Tim Belcher said. "That doesn't sound all that impressive. But after (Sunday), that's now four losses with a quality start, and he's had three no-decisions with quality starts. He could very easily have as many as 13 wins and, quite conservatively, could have 10 or 11."
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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends
We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS. Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned. For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go. As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190). Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet. For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction. On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later. Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick. Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com
New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors
Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season.
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times.
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season.
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS.
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”. With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit. Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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