2010 FBS Positional Analysis: Tight Ends

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The collegiate tight end has traditionally received little-to-no fanfare, except for the truly exceptional in that category. However, the position remains a quarterback's best friend. Whether it is serving as the ultimate relief valve in the middle of the field, or blocking both in passing and running situations, a talented tight end can create mismatches and make a real difference in any given game.

A look at the top FBS tight ends heading into 2010:

KYLE RUDOLPH, NOTRE DAME

The favorite to win the Mackey Award as 2010 commences, expect Rudolph to flourish in Brian Kelly's offensive system. The 6-6, 265-pounder is coming off a sophomore season in which he flashed great potential, grabbing 33 balls for 364 yards and three TDs. If he remains healthy, he has first-round NFL talent. A big target with wide receiver-type skills, Rudolph is poised for a big season, regardless of who earns the QB job in South Bend. With All-American talent in Michael Floyd on the outside and Rudolph at TE, it is hard to imagine whoever is under center struggling for an extended period of time with the Irish.

WESLYE SAUNDERS, SOUTH CAROLINA

This Gamecock certainly passes the eyeball test. A huge target at 6-6, 273 pounds, Saunders could also receive a first-round grade come draft time. His size and athleticism jump out at you. He hauled in 32 balls as a junior, for 353 yards and three TDs, but his modest numbers had a lot to do with inconsistency under center. With better play from the QB position this year, Saunders could put up bigger stats. South Carolina won't vie for an SEC crown in 2010, but playing in the top conference in the country should allow Saunders to showcase his talents week-in and week-out.

D.J. WILLIAMS, ARKANSAS

Williams had a huge sophomore season in 2008, leading the Razorbacks in receptions (61), receiving yards (723) and receiving TDs (3), en route to All- American accolades and a spot as the school's first-ever Mackey Award semifinalist. His numbers tailed off considerably in 2009, with just 32 receptions for 411 yards and three scores, but with steadier play under center from Heisman hopeful Ryan Mallett, Williams could return to his 2008 form this season. He has decent size (6-2, 250) and is a veteran presence who has seen it all. Arkansas is not an elite SEC squad, but Bobby Petrino has put his stamp on this offense and will undoubtedly utilize his assets to the fullest this year.

LANCE KENDRICKS, WISCONSIN

There is plenty of hype surrounding Wisconsin heading into 2010, as the Badgers are the front-runner for the Big Ten title in the eyes of many. Their talented tight end is one of the reasons for the optimism. At 6-4, 239 pounds, Kendricks is more of an oversized receiver than conventional tight end, and finished 2009 with 29 receptions, 356 yards and three TDs. In his final outing, he torched Miami for seven catches and 128 yards in the Champs Sports Bowl. Head coach Bret Bielema has all the pieces in place in 2010, including a devastating ground game and solid play under center, assets that can only help open things up for Kendricks and allow him to soar to the next level.

ORSON CHARLES, GEORGIA

The Bulldogs have an All-American on the outside in A.J. Green, which should help the development of the ultra-talented Charles, as there will likely be plenty of room for him to roam. The 6-3, 235-pounder isn't especially big for the position, but his talent is in catching the football and making plays after the catch. He showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman in 2009, earning Freshman All-American honors when he appeared in 12 games with three starts and finished the year with 23 receptions, for 374 yards and two TDs. The goal for Georgia is to return to elite status in the SEC, and if the Bulldogs are to attain that, expect Charles to have big numbers when all is said and done.

GEORGE BRYAN, NC STATE

Bryan emerged as the ACC's top tight end in 2009, earning First-Team honors after catching 40 balls, for 422 yards and six TDs. He may not get the publicity that other TEs around the nation get, but the 6-5, 265-pound senior has developed into one of the better players at the position. The Wolfpack are still trying to return to ACC prominence, but may be a year or two away, especially if talented QB Russell Wilson (a recent fourth-round selection of the MLB Colorado Rockies) decides to forgo the rest of his eligibility to concentrate on his baseball career. Still, regardless of who is under center, expect Bryan to see plenty of balls thrown his way.

JOE HALAHUNI, OREGON STATE

Mike Riley's Beavers are an offensive juggernaut, with playmakers at all the skill positions. That includes tight end, where Halahuni reigns supreme. He plays more of an "H" back for OSU, but really came on strong down the stretch in 2009, finishing the year with 35 receptions for 486 yards and three TDs, despite starting just two games. The 6-2, 252-pounder continues to improve and this could be the year he really bursts on the scene. With the talented Rodgers' brothers garnering most of the attention in Corvallis, Halahuni will have a great opportunity to exploit matchups in 2010.

BEN GUIDUGLI, CINCINNATI

Butch Jones takes over for the departed Brian Kelly and has the unenviable task of trying to hold onto the momentum gained by two straight Big East crowns. However, the cupboard isn't exactly bare at Cincinnati and the Bearcats will head into 2010 with a solid QB under center in Zach Collaros and Guidugli at the TE position. Despite being undersized at 6-1, 239 pounds, Guidugli was effective as a junior in 2009, grabbing 27 balls, for 364 yards and three TDs. The younger brother of former UC signal-calling star Gino Guidugli, Ben has steadily improved his numbers each year, and 2010 should be no different. A third conference crown may be too much to ask, but expect Guidugli to remain a key weapon in the Cincinnati arsenal.

KAVARIO MIDDLETON, WASHINGTON

The rebuilding process in the Pacific Northwest continues for head coach Steve Sarkisian, and there is some real talent, especially on the offensive side of the football, that has the Huskies fan base interested. All-American candidate Jake Locker is poised for a huge 2010 before taking his talents to the NFL and with targets like Jermaine Kearse and Middleton, big numbers are likely. The 6-5, 253-pound Middleton showed his potential as a sophomore, finishing 2009 with 26 receptions for 257 yards and three TDs. With Locker feeling more and more comfortable in the pocket, expect Middleton's numbers to increase significantly in 2010.

CHARLIE GANTT, MICHIGAN STATE

Unlike the aforementioned players on this list, Gantt is more of a "lunch- pail" type of tight end. The 6-5, 255-pound Spartan will do anything to contribute, and is a solid blocker who continues to improve as a receiver. Gantt earned All-Big Ten Honorable Mention in 2009, finishing the season with career-highs in receptions (22) and receiving yards (348). MSU finished 2009 just under .500, and if the Spartans fail to build on a six-win season, it won't be due to a lack of effort from Gantt.

OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: Luke Stocker (Tennessee), Mike McNeill (Nebraska), Anthony Miller (California), Kevin Koger (Michigan), Willie Jefferson (Baylor), Jordan Reed (Florida), Jeffrey Anderson (UAB), Kendrick Moeai (Utah).

Gamblingsportsbookonline NCAA Football Betting News

<< Record crowd watched Clijsters beat Serena
Brussels, Belgium (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The largest crowd to ever watch a tennis match saw Belgian Kim Clijsters beat Wimbledon champion Serena Williams in an exhibition bout Thursday in Brussels. The former world No. 1 Clijsters topped the c

<< Bruins sign Stuart to one-year deal
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Bruins have signed defenseman Mark Stuart to a one-year contract. Financial terms were not disclosed. Stuart has spent his entire career with the Bruins, who made the Rochester, Minnesota nat

<< Coroner: Turpin died of self-inflicted gunshot
LEXINGTON, Ky. (AP) -A coroner's report says former Kentucky basketball star Melvin Turpin died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound.The report Friday gave no other information about the investigation, including whether Turpin left a suicide note. Faye

<< Calling Canuck fans everywhere
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The word "frenzy" is often used to describe the NHL's free agency period, but sitting here today on July 9th, the word "flop" might be more appropriate in describing the excitement level amongst hockey fans.

<< Too Many NBA GM's Score Low Grades In FA Class
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I'm wondering how many general managers did their homework in preparation for the greatest free agent class in NBA history, considering how many ludicrous contracts were given out. Apparently the inmates are runn

Rays try to extend win streak versus Indians >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays shoot for their seventh straight win this evening when they continue their four-game set with the Cleveland Indians at Tropicana Field. After a miserable June that saw them go just 11-14, the Rays have w

Orioles try for another win over West-leading Rangers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The woeful Baltimore Orioles try to make it two straight wins over the American League West-leading Texas Rangers when the two teams continue their four-game set from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington this evening. The Orioles

D'Backs vie for another win against Marlins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks try to make it two straight wins tonight when they host the Florida Marlins in game two of a four-game series at Chase Field. In Thursday's opener, Kelly Johnson went 4-for-5 and drove in three ru

Nationals aim to back Strasburg in opener versus Cain, Giants >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stephen Strasburg is quickly finding out that its hard to win games when his team has had trouble scoring runs. It's a problem San Francisco Giants pitcher Matt Cain can certainly relate to. Strasburg will be attempting to

Mets, Braves kick off key series at Citi Field >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Citi Field has provided a distinct home advantage for the New York Mets this season, an edge the team will attempt to use in a critical three-game series with the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves that starts up ton

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.